Quote: “Just remember, there’s a lot of good that happens in this world that you just don’t see. There’s a lot of people helping each other that you don’t see.” Andrew Busch
We have all been hearing the word recession thrown around a lot. So, we’re asking, how bad will the economy get? To hopefully put our minds at ease and answer some of these burning questions, we are very grateful to welcome back Economic Futurist (and the great calmer-downer) Andy Busch to share his thoughts about where we’re heading and what we can expect.
Andrew Busch was the first Chief Market Intelligence Officer (CMIO) for the U.S. government at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). As CMIO, he was charged with improving and enhancing the government’s understanding of the markets. Andy provided briefings to White House, US House and US Senate staffers on a wide range of issues, including extreme market volatility, China’s influence on the global commodity markets and the impact of Fintech & virtual currencies on market dynamics.
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Jane Atkinson: Well welcome back everyone to the wealthy speakers show today. We have my client, Futurist and economist, Andy Bush. Back with us. Welcome back, sir. It's great to be here, Jane.
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Jane Atkinson: Hey? There's really not much of us to talk about now, is there? It It seems like every twenty-four hours. Something changes. So uh, okay. Well, first let me just hear you are just telling me what's going on in your own speaking business. So talk about what's current for you right now in terms of speaking.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean it's been. It's been an amazing couple of years now, but um, certainly this fall has been the busiest I've been in since I started the business uh way back with you a long time ago, and I think the combination of
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh so much uncertainty out there over what's going on, not only with the economy, but also a demand for clients To really see um into the future. Uh is is really driven a lot of the demand for what I do, and and the thing is is like, you know, Uh, what I do is so unique as opposed to Futurists or other people like that, because I I talk about the economy. But I I really look at like trends. I've been super charged on our Covid. But then I do a case
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: e to the study on this industry, whatever industry, i'm. I'm. Speaking in front of and showing them the growth opportunities. I usually do five to seven growth opportunities there, and one hundred and fifty.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Um, it. It's really unique. I I don't. I don't. I mean maybe There's some people that do that. But I don't see anybody who has who who is doing that currently very unique, and also something that uh, when we have our next coaching call. People should be paying a lot more, for we'll be talking about raising your fees again, my friend. Um! So
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Jane Atkinson: I call you the great calmer downer. We've had you on the show a number of times at the beginning of Covid, even before that. But really there is a lot of news that could really be frightening some people right now. And and I just want to say, you know, let's just be clear
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Jane Atkinson: that the news networks want your viewership, and so they tend to try to alarm us with what's going on. This is happening, and this is happening, and so really be aware of what you're consuming when it comes to things like this. But we've got recession.
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Jane Atkinson: We've got inflation, and we've got a pandemic turned endemic. Uh What do it. Let's talk first. Recession. Are we in a recession right now? Um! Some of the some of the key indicators of recession are not actually happening like unemployment right?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Right? And so unemployment is a trailing indicator. So we don't really look for that for telling us anything about the economy in in the sense of where it's going. Um! So from that standpoint
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh, you can also look at it. The fact that many companies are still hiring because they couldn't get the workers before. So now they're playing a little bit of ketchup that doesn't you know that does again, that doesn't give a glimpse into the future. So What I would say is this: you know, as far as the recession goes.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Um! I put some probabilities on this, because I just still think people do that enough, So I would say. There's a sixty-five percent probability that will be in a recession in the first half of next year. I I look at this because of the dramatic slowdown and a lot of the things that going on in housing. I look at the the incredible cost of capital going up because of fundraising interest rates, and the fact that inflation is not coming off rapidly. So um!
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Jane Atkinson: The tightening of the fiscal screws, as it were, to slow things down is going to continue.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: I you know it. It's hard to say
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: when it comes to recessions like they last the the
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: there's a group in the United States, the Nv. Er that officially classifies these things. And so it's the The rule of thumb is two quarters of negative Gdp growth. We already had that in the first half of this year in the United States, but it was generated by inflation. I don't want to get too far into that. But basically, what you need to also see is a fairly large tick up and unemployment,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: and that will tell you like, If we went from three and a half to four and a half or five, while the economy slows or goes negative. Then people would consider that a recession Let me clarify just really quickly on this recession. I don't think it's going to be terrible. I I think we have to slow down because of inflation and the cost of goods. It's like a big catch up period, because we've been firing on all cylinders for so long, and then we had the Ukraine war, which kind of blew up literally the Ukraine economy along with the Russian economy.
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Jane Atkinson: And so we've been struggling with supply chains and other things like that. So we're gonna we'll get through that. But we need to slow down in different parts of the economy to have that catch up period.
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Jane Atkinson: I haven't I've been on a news cleanse lately because I was getting myself all worked up so.
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Jane Atkinson: But I did happen to catch a Congresswoman. Ah, Katie Porter talking about what she believed was cause for inflation. Which was it came down to corporate greed.
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Jane Atkinson: I say you regarding corporate greed. Now I know you have to be careful, because corporations might want to hire you to speak. So this is where we walk the fine line between uh
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: what's real, and I would caution anyone who listens to a politician to get an economic understanding it. They always have an agenda. Let's just put it that way. I i'm not familiar with that hustle. Representatives that Congresswoman Um, but I would say just
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Jane Atkinson: you know that's for something like this: That normal inflation in at the corporate level for products would be around seventeen, and I could be getting this a little bit wrong, and right now it's fifty-four. And you know what I have no problem.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: I have no problem, believing that some of the companies just said, Ooh! We're going to capitalize on this. Everybody thinks it's inflation. So we're just going to blame it on supply chain when it's really not do that. That would be if they could raise prices aggressive. And that's where the rubber meets the road on certain things. I mean, if you go down that avenue. Then you're going to criticize Apple Google, every major technology company, because their margins are big compared to the rest of the world.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Do you go into than they were before? Is the question. Well, I mean the the thing is is like what's an acceptable rate of return? Is that the business of politics to tell what corporations are reasonable rate of return is, I don't think so. Your business as a politician is to make sure the conditions are met, that the that the country grows, that that employment is encouraged, you know, and of course, that we don't get out of control inflation.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: They created a lot of the problems that we had politicians did by spending a lot of money in a really short period of time, and then they had the Central bank, cut interest rates and engage in quantitative easy at the same time. And then, honestly,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: we had all sorts of problems with supply chain because of China, you know, shutting down because of Covid. We shut down Canada, shut down Europe shut down, and then we had the Ukraine more so,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know. I mean like if you can critic the last thing you want to do, and this is where you can get a big trouble. As a politician. You can look at oil companies and energy companies and go. Huh! Those people are making a lot of money. They shouldn't be doing that. We need to tax them more. And what's end up happening is you exacerbate the problem. In other words,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: if you want to encourage more development, right more oil out there, or more natural gas to reduce prices in gasoline and things like that. You don't tax it.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: You actually do the opposite. You're trying to get people to produce more for a period of time, and and that discourage it. So I again sorry I didn't want to get up my so back there, but you have to be really careful looking at politicians trying to. Oh, I just thought made such good sense to me. And I thought, Okay, maybe we need to look at this, and so thank you for your take on it. That's a balanced approach, and I appreciate that.
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Jane Atkinson: So.
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Jane Atkinson: Ah, Covid and I do want to say something about recession or not recession. If we are clear on the value that we're bringing to the table, we can be of service to our clients, no matter what, and we found that out in the most severe case which was Covid,
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Jane Atkinson: the very beginning of Covid. If you were able to recognize, Hey, wait a second. I have something of value for my clients right now to help them get through this situation.
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Jane Atkinson: You are of service through the whole thing, and and I know that that happened with you. You were able to really steer your clients through Covid, where you not with your, you know, because you had actually studied pandemics before even you wrote a book about it. Didn't you?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: To me it's not surprising that my business is really taken off right now. I I wrote a book back in two thousand and seven, that I like to tell audiences that no one read right but the first. No. What was it called world event trading,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: and the first five chapters are an infectious disease outbreak and their impact on the economy and markets right? It. Things like and that came out during the global financial crisis. That's why nobody read it right? So they didn't think all this is important, right kind of wrong time. Exactly. And now, if you think about it. What were the topics that I covered? Not only infectious disease outbreak, but war
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: elections? You mean. All of these are happening today simultaneously. So
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: like. That's the thing Like as speakers we always have value to bring. You just have to like, Find out. You have to look at your clients and go. What obstacles are they trying to overcome? What challenges are they trying to overcome, and then help them with those challenges? It's not just about the content that you deliver. Yes, of course. But if you can help them
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Jane Atkinson: mit ctl, and that's where you really get hired a lot, and that's where you can really grow your business. Yeah. So good question to ask might be, How can what's going on in the world? How can I serve them? One hundred and fifty.
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Jane Atkinson: Help them solve a problem during this time and line it right up. Maybe there's a new speech that you add to the mix. You know how to recession Proof blah blah blah! I think that would be really helpful. Um! Talk about You're the first person that I heard say the word endemic,
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Jane Atkinson: and I didn't even think about it. But is that the end of the pandemic when we're in that stage? Is that how it got named?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean. That's kind of the way it works with what we wanted it to be. And this is what I was telling. Clients for the last two years is like, starts off as a pandemic, then it becomes endemic, which means it's always with us, and then it becomes more like the flu, which is exactly what this has done. Yeah, it's still. It's a horrible flu. It will continue to create a lot of mortality. But we have, like world is really done an amazing job with the vaccines with learning about
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: it. There's so many things that have happened that are really good.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, it's going to be with us for some time, and we've changed our behaviors, I, you know, just like I go through the airport. I still wear a mask, but like hardly anybody else does, and you'll see that in different countries like Canada was very different than the United States, as was the Eu
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh. When you travel on planes in Canada. You still see a lot of people with masks on here in the Us. Not as many, Obviously so. It's just kind of a different game, but
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: but everybody's gotten a lot better at this, a lot more comfortable. And so we're not like, you know, sheltering in place anymore, which is great.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: My Mom has Kovat right now, by the way, ninety two years old.
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Jane Atkinson: Yeah. So uh, she she's cruised through it, and I think is out at the other end now, and we'll get from captivity shortly back into the wild with the rest of the people in her residence. But I can see how especially the reason why seniors are so affected.
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Jane Atkinson: It's because they don't even understand the danger. People came and visited her inside her unit when she was sick with Covid, and they had just gotten over Covid. It's like people. This is why you got it twice. You know It's such a short period of time, anyway. Um,
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Jane Atkinson: so. And And, by the way, I want to back up to something here in Canada, I don't. I forget who our governing body is. They have declared. We are in a recession, And
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Jane Atkinson: did we not have really, really, really cheap money available to us from loans and mortgages and things like that for a long period of time, like what do you think is considered
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Jane Atkinson: ridiculously cheap? Money versus the interest rates that are happening right now,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: right? So I mean Canada's had a problem with housing for quite some time. It's just not enough of it to be honest, but then I mean for low income, for suspicion, and and the United States is the same way. The demand for housing is is pretty extraordinary. Um! But uh,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: if you want to jump, start an economy that struggling. The central bank has a couple of tools that it can use. Um. The first thing it does is cut interest rates aggressively in the United States and Canada basically cut to zero. Well, if you do that, that's great for a while. But if it's if it's accompanied with
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: a big amount of fiscal spending you really run the risk of generating inflation. If you don't see the signs for and aggressively move back the other way, it's it's a temporary measure that should be used only temporarily, not for an extended period of time. And that's where I think the United States got in A lot of trouble. Is that literally a year ago our central bank knew it had inflation that was going up. We knew we had five percent Gdp growth. There was no reason for us to keep interest prices
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: as well as they were. So um! They waited way too long. Historically this is what they do. They make this mistake, and then they rush to try to catch up. So it's playing out pretty much
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: what we thought. Um, So when it comes to, you know housing and things like that. It It was way overcooked. Now it's coming back to the other way. We'll see how far down it goes. It is not like the global financial crisis. This is not going to be a banking crisis. The banks here in the United States um had to increase their capital level significantly under a law called Dot, Frank Canada's banking system, so much more sound than the Us. Was back in two thousand and eight.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: I could testify that because I worked at a Canadian bank back then. Um so. Um! But so this isn't going to be like That's why I say this recession should be somewhat mild, but it depends on what sector you're in. So that's really kind of the case where where this is going.
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Jane Atkinson: Do you remember when the interest rates went over twenty. I do Y. That was a really frightening time. And you do you predict that anything like that will ever will ever come close to anything like that again. No, because I think inflation is going to come off. Um, we're probably at the P. Commit right now. It never say never, because we don't know the outcome of the Ukraine war um, but
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: we know year over year it will start to go down. Um. We know we know the chip shortage is starting to abate. We know auto production is starting to go up, and that means if there's more cars, then prices of new cars start to come down. Buyer stepped in use. Car prices start to come off, and it starts to cascade that way, and transportation has been the
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: poster child, for where inflation is shown up the most. And then food, of course, because not only
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: well, really because of energy, more than anything, Diesel prices specifically. So once those prices start to come off a bit. Then it cascades through the whole economy, and and that's what I I think we're going to see, as the world adjusts to the situation in Ukraine.
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Jane Atkinson: Okay, that's good to know that feels hopeful to me that this isn't just gonna keep piling on and piling on and piling on. We hold three mortgages. So you know, i'm aware uh, but i'm really trying to be pretty, you know, even keeled about the whole thing, not making any knee jerk reactions if you've got cash. By the way, it's an amazing time to invest, is it not?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean, it just depends in your timeframe. I mean, if you're looking out ten years
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean you could. You could definitely put some money in there. Um, but you can also look at and say, You know there's some of these trends that are not going to disappear
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: over time, so you may have to start to rethink like. Do I want all tech. You know that that kind of ship is sailed for right now. Doesn't mean it can't go back up ten percent or something like that, because it's come off thirty or forty percent.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: So you have to be thoughtful about what you do. Um! And when it comes to interest rates I would say, overall um, you know, when you see rates move up as quickly as we have um that really it's disruptive, and so it will slow the economy they won't necessarily come off a tremendous amount from these levels, but they they will keep going up. That's the key point that we're looking for the inflection here that I hope Uh, I love.
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Jane Atkinson: I like that, and I hope it's true. Um! So industries. Is it true that tech is laying off right now,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: because they don't have a lot of profits. It's easy for them to get into trouble quickly if they don't have the right mix of people and technology. So there's I mean, Meta is laying off. You know, a lot of people they're going through a hard time. Even. You know. Big companies like Tesla are looking at things where they can decrease their costs. A lot of firms are not necessarily cutting workers per se, but they're not. They're stopping their hiring,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh, which I think is a a smart thing to do.
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Jane Atkinson: I know some people hate electric vehicles, but I do have a Tesla on order, but I heard that they are announced a new, like half price cost of a car. They have new technology, and there's something new on the horizon which I think is good news for people who want to get into electric, but can't afford the big prices. Right?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah. And I think that's
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: um.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: The run up in the cost of the cars is really predicated upon so much of the supply chain not being able to get chips,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: and I mean they're in your phones. They're in your car. They're in your refrigerator. They're you know. They're just they're just everywhere. And so if we have a problem with that supply, chain, then everything starts to go up because you can't produce enough of those cars. So I think. Um, I I think overall uh
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: like I said,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: You know You hate to see people lose their jobs for sure when we don't want that, and maybe that doesn't happen. But we definitely going to see we are already seeing a much slower pattern of uh of in the housing market. And that's really the canary in the coal mine, for when you start raising rates so overall. Yes, I think we could start to see
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh some of the more highly demanded products out there. Start to ease off and be able to um. We know there's inventory prompts with like Walmart and uh Target. They've already told us that. So that, like, if you think about the Us. Economy, and i'm just gonna go through. This really quickly is what I do In some of my presentations like prior to the pandemic
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: consumer spending was like seventy percent was on services, and thirty percent more designed goods. Well, if you can't spend on services,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know, if you can't go to a Bar restaurant, you can't travel, you, you know. Don't go to a hotel, you know you still have your job right? All of a sudden you go. Okay? Well, if i'm working from home. Then I need a new office, a new new table. I need a new chair I need an ipad for my son who's going to school all vote.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, right. All those things are good, and you start to bump up the demand for those goods. Well, globally, everybody was doing the same thing to supply chains couldn't handle it. Now, what we saw this past summer is we're starting to see that shift the other way. People went on vacation. They went to bars, restaurants, concerts, all of those things which is great news.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: So, as I said at the very beginning, it depends on where you sit in the economy. If you're on the good side of things, you're probably feeling like the world is falling in. If you're on the services side you're going. I need to hire more people.
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Jane Atkinson: So it's. It's just fascinating to see. It is fascinating. Okay. So let's do a lightning round, And I want to hear about various industries in like. Let's So i'm thinking about if you want to target these industries as a speaker,
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Jane Atkinson: you know. Is it a good time or not a good time. So we think tech is kind of like shaky right now, right? So maybe not tech.
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Jane Atkinson: Yeah, I mean, insurance is still pretty robust. I would say, Um, so I I like that other than the hurricane in Florida.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: It's very robust now that interest rates have gone up. They're making more money because of the spread between where they can borrow and where they can lend. Okay, So we'll put that over the whole financial services sector healthcare, one hundred and fifty
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: yeah health care. It's just very consistent. Probably you know. Um, nothing great, but it's just consistent.
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Jane Atkinson: Do you think they're coming back like they struggle during Covid. I'm: sure most of them right? Yeah. I mean from my perspective, like I've been on the road for, like,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know, since um the fall of two thousand and twenty, and so I I mean two thousand and twenty-one. I was doing a bunch with associations The the thing was that there's some of them that are very cautious in the way that they approach most of those. My experience this year has been that they're opening up and having their conferences in two thousand and twenty-two. So
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: um really so much of that is going to be driven by how this fall looks with Covid, and
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: whether people not um feel comfortable with that, but I I think the Protocols will be in place to be fine with that. But to me associations came back strongly this year. Good, good uh agriculture. I know you speak to some agriculture super busy. I mean one of the best ones out there, just because
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: they need help with all the volatility that's going on. But be you know what they're selling is what everybody needs, so food, right? So
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: it's good place to what is the sector that I didn't mention yet. That's important to note
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: energy energy. I was just gonna say mining. Okay, yeah, those two are related. Obviously: Um: Yeah, I I think you know there there was a big move into green energy. Now that's getting dialed back a little bit. I think the old what
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know, fossil fuels. Um hydrocarbons. Those are still super important. And so they're obviously making a lot of money at the prices that are out there. So they're still robust. Okay. Well, listen. You did exactly what I wanted you to do.
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Jane Atkinson: I'm calmer. Our listeners are calmer as well. We don't want Jean to be calm. That's
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Jane Atkinson: freaking out then, everybody. No, that's not true. And uh, but I did freak out at the beginning of Covid until I spoke to you. Uh, you did help calm me down. I also remembered. Hey, wait a second. People need me now more than ever, and I cruise through Covid probably have my best year ever during Covid. So I think that that's important to note and
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Jane Atkinson: and let's really work on our mindset. If watching the news makes you anxious. Then look at your intake and scale it back. That's what I've been doing lately. That's my number. One solution is
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Jane Atkinson: Don't. Let the news alarm me as much, especially first thing in the morning every day. That's not a good way to start my day. No, I just remember that
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: there's a phrase in media, and I I will say this, but it's terrible, but if it bleeds, it leads, and that is, you know, if there's a fire, that's the first thing local news goes to for sure if they're blowing up something in the Ukraine That's the first thing they're going to go to. They're going to make it sound like It's so much worse than it is. And i'm not downplaying these things. These are really important issues for sure
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: people working on helping each other that you don't see there's a lot of believe it or not.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: There's a lot of smart people in both the Canadian Government and the Us. Government that are working to do good things. I know that's hard to believe, but I will tell you from my experience in government it That was probably the biggest surprise I saw. So there's good things that are going on. So So just temper what you hear with the knowledge of that it's really good, and I just want to send some heartfelt,
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Jane Atkinson: You know knowledge that what we've been talking about are really first world problems. If you have a roof over your head. You
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Jane Atkinson: like the people in Florida and Fort Myers do not right now be grateful. If, uh in in Hurricane, Fiona actually really did a number out here here in Canada as well. If you're not being bombed on a daily basis, be grateful like there's so much that we can really be grateful for. And I really want to send out some heartfelt prayers for people who are struggling right now, You know. I think Covid took a real
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Jane Atkinson: uh.
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Jane Atkinson: It, knocked back mental health in a big way. And I think that that's something that we just all need to be really aware of, and
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: maybe uh go hug somebody today. Yeah. And I think that, you know I I heard a great sermon the other day when they were talking. They made this quote about how We're coming out of the pandemic right now, and we're kind of reopening up. But we're coming out with um
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: not
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: with no energy reserves meaning like personal energy reserves. We're way low on those. And so you need to start to think about building those back up. And I think one of the best ways to calm yourself down is just to do something for somebody else. Help somebody else out, you know. Just be be a resource for somebody, or you know. Call up a family friend, or whatever you know. Just just do something outside that's not for you that's for someone else, and it will make you feel a lot better I get.
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Jane Atkinson: That's a great place to close in. So much for being here again with us. The great calmer downer. Uh, I appreciate you, and I appreciate those who are listening in. And I'm hoping that this helped you. One hundred and fifty,
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Jane Atkinson: you know, create a little balance in your thoughts about what's coming. Thanks again, Andy. With that we're going to say. See you some wealthy speakers bye, for now everyone.
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Jane Atkinson: Well welcome back everyone to the wealthy speakers show today. We have my client, Futurist and economist, Andy Bush. Back with us. Welcome back, sir. It's great to be here, Jane.
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Jane Atkinson: Hey? There's really not much of us to talk about now, is there? It It seems like every twenty-four hours. Something changes. So uh, okay. Well, first let me just hear you are just telling me what's going on in your own speaking business. So talk about what's current for you right now in terms of speaking.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean it's been. It's been an amazing couple of years now, but um, certainly this fall has been the busiest I've been in since I started the business uh way back with you a long time ago, and I think the combination of
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh so much uncertainty out there over what's going on, not only with the economy, but also a demand for clients To really see um into the future. Uh is is really driven a lot of the demand for what I do, and and the thing is is like, you know, Uh, what I do is so unique as opposed to Futurists or other people like that, because I I talk about the economy. But I I really look at like trends. I've been super charged on our Covid. But then I do a case
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: e to the study on this industry, whatever industry, i'm. I'm. Speaking in front of and showing them the growth opportunities. I usually do five to seven growth opportunities there, and one hundred and fifty.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Um, it. It's really unique. I I don't. I don't. I mean maybe There's some people that do that. But I don't see anybody who has who who is doing that currently very unique, and also something that uh, when we have our next coaching call. People should be paying a lot more, for we'll be talking about raising your fees again, my friend. Um! So
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Jane Atkinson: I call you the great calmer downer. We've had you on the show a number of times at the beginning of Covid, even before that. But really there is a lot of news that could really be frightening some people right now. And and I just want to say, you know, let's just be clear
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Jane Atkinson: that the news networks want your viewership, and so they tend to try to alarm us with what's going on. This is happening, and this is happening, and so really be aware of what you're consuming when it comes to things like this. But we've got recession.
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Jane Atkinson: We've got inflation, and we've got a pandemic turned endemic. Uh What do it. Let's talk first. Recession. Are we in a recession right now? Um! Some of the some of the key indicators of recession are not actually happening like unemployment right?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Right? And so unemployment is a trailing indicator. So we don't really look for that for telling us anything about the economy in in the sense of where it's going. Um! So from that standpoint
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh, you can also look at it. The fact that many companies are still hiring because they couldn't get the workers before. So now they're playing a little bit of ketchup that doesn't you know that does again, that doesn't give a glimpse into the future. So What I would say is this: you know, as far as the recession goes.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Um! I put some probabilities on this, because I just still think people do that enough, So I would say. There's a sixty-five percent probability that will be in a recession in the first half of next year. I I look at this because of the dramatic slowdown and a lot of the things that going on in housing. I look at the the incredible cost of capital going up because of fundraising interest rates, and the fact that inflation is not coming off rapidly. So um!
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Jane Atkinson: The tightening of the fiscal screws, as it were, to slow things down is going to continue.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: I you know it. It's hard to say
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: when it comes to recessions like they last the the
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: there's a group in the United States, the Nv. Er that officially classifies these things. And so it's the The rule of thumb is two quarters of negative Gdp growth. We already had that in the first half of this year in the United States, but it was generated by inflation. I don't want to get too far into that. But basically, what you need to also see is a fairly large tick up and unemployment,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: and that will tell you like, If we went from three and a half to four and a half or five, while the economy slows or goes negative. Then people would consider that a recession Let me clarify just really quickly on this recession. I don't think it's going to be terrible. I I think we have to slow down because of inflation and the cost of goods. It's like a big catch up period, because we've been firing on all cylinders for so long, and then we had the Ukraine war, which kind of blew up literally the Ukraine economy along with the Russian economy.
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Jane Atkinson: And so we've been struggling with supply chains and other things like that. So we're gonna we'll get through that. But we need to slow down in different parts of the economy to have that catch up period.
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Jane Atkinson: I haven't I've been on a news cleanse lately because I was getting myself all worked up so.
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Jane Atkinson: But I did happen to catch a Congresswoman. Ah, Katie Porter talking about what she believed was cause for inflation. Which was it came down to corporate greed.
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Jane Atkinson: I say you regarding corporate greed. Now I know you have to be careful, because corporations might want to hire you to speak. So this is where we walk the fine line between uh
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: what's real, and I would caution anyone who listens to a politician to get an economic understanding it. They always have an agenda. Let's just put it that way. I i'm not familiar with that hustle. Representatives that Congresswoman Um, but I would say just
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Jane Atkinson: you know that's for something like this: That normal inflation in at the corporate level for products would be around seventeen, and I could be getting this a little bit wrong, and right now it's fifty-four. And you know what I have no problem.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: I have no problem, believing that some of the companies just said, Ooh! We're going to capitalize on this. Everybody thinks it's inflation. So we're just going to blame it on supply chain when it's really not do that. That would be if they could raise prices aggressive. And that's where the rubber meets the road on certain things. I mean, if you go down that avenue. Then you're going to criticize Apple Google, every major technology company, because their margins are big compared to the rest of the world.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Do you go into than they were before? Is the question. Well, I mean the the thing is is like what's an acceptable rate of return? Is that the business of politics to tell what corporations are reasonable rate of return is, I don't think so. Your business as a politician is to make sure the conditions are met, that the that the country grows, that that employment is encouraged, you know, and of course, that we don't get out of control inflation.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: They created a lot of the problems that we had politicians did by spending a lot of money in a really short period of time, and then they had the Central bank, cut interest rates and engage in quantitative easy at the same time. And then, honestly,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: we had all sorts of problems with supply chain because of China, you know, shutting down because of Covid. We shut down Canada, shut down Europe shut down, and then we had the Ukraine more so,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know. I mean like if you can critic the last thing you want to do, and this is where you can get a big trouble. As a politician. You can look at oil companies and energy companies and go. Huh! Those people are making a lot of money. They shouldn't be doing that. We need to tax them more. And what's end up happening is you exacerbate the problem. In other words,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: if you want to encourage more development, right more oil out there, or more natural gas to reduce prices in gasoline and things like that. You don't tax it.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: You actually do the opposite. You're trying to get people to produce more for a period of time, and and that discourage it. So I again sorry I didn't want to get up my so back there, but you have to be really careful looking at politicians trying to. Oh, I just thought made such good sense to me. And I thought, Okay, maybe we need to look at this, and so thank you for your take on it. That's a balanced approach, and I appreciate that.
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Jane Atkinson: So.
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Jane Atkinson: Ah, Covid and I do want to say something about recession or not recession. If we are clear on the value that we're bringing to the table, we can be of service to our clients, no matter what, and we found that out in the most severe case which was Covid,
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Jane Atkinson: the very beginning of Covid. If you were able to recognize, Hey, wait a second. I have something of value for my clients right now to help them get through this situation.
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Jane Atkinson: You are of service through the whole thing, and and I know that that happened with you. You were able to really steer your clients through Covid, where you not with your, you know, because you had actually studied pandemics before even you wrote a book about it. Didn't you?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: To me it's not surprising that my business is really taken off right now. I I wrote a book back in two thousand and seven, that I like to tell audiences that no one read right but the first. No. What was it called world event trading,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: and the first five chapters are an infectious disease outbreak and their impact on the economy and markets right? It. Things like and that came out during the global financial crisis. That's why nobody read it right? So they didn't think all this is important, right kind of wrong time. Exactly. And now, if you think about it. What were the topics that I covered? Not only infectious disease outbreak, but war
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: elections? You mean. All of these are happening today simultaneously. So
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: like. That's the thing Like as speakers we always have value to bring. You just have to like, Find out. You have to look at your clients and go. What obstacles are they trying to overcome? What challenges are they trying to overcome, and then help them with those challenges? It's not just about the content that you deliver. Yes, of course. But if you can help them
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Jane Atkinson: mit ctl, and that's where you really get hired a lot, and that's where you can really grow your business. Yeah. So good question to ask might be, How can what's going on in the world? How can I serve them? One hundred and fifty.
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Jane Atkinson: Help them solve a problem during this time and line it right up. Maybe there's a new speech that you add to the mix. You know how to recession Proof blah blah blah! I think that would be really helpful. Um! Talk about You're the first person that I heard say the word endemic,
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Jane Atkinson: and I didn't even think about it. But is that the end of the pandemic when we're in that stage? Is that how it got named?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean. That's kind of the way it works with what we wanted it to be. And this is what I was telling. Clients for the last two years is like, starts off as a pandemic, then it becomes endemic, which means it's always with us, and then it becomes more like the flu, which is exactly what this has done. Yeah, it's still. It's a horrible flu. It will continue to create a lot of mortality. But we have, like world is really done an amazing job with the vaccines with learning about
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: it. There's so many things that have happened that are really good.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, it's going to be with us for some time, and we've changed our behaviors, I, you know, just like I go through the airport. I still wear a mask, but like hardly anybody else does, and you'll see that in different countries like Canada was very different than the United States, as was the Eu
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh. When you travel on planes in Canada. You still see a lot of people with masks on here in the Us. Not as many, Obviously so. It's just kind of a different game, but
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: but everybody's gotten a lot better at this, a lot more comfortable. And so we're not like, you know, sheltering in place anymore, which is great.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: My Mom has Kovat right now, by the way, ninety two years old.
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Jane Atkinson: Yeah. So uh, she she's cruised through it, and I think is out at the other end now, and we'll get from captivity shortly back into the wild with the rest of the people in her residence. But I can see how especially the reason why seniors are so affected.
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Jane Atkinson: It's because they don't even understand the danger. People came and visited her inside her unit when she was sick with Covid, and they had just gotten over Covid. It's like people. This is why you got it twice. You know It's such a short period of time, anyway. Um,
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Jane Atkinson: so. And And, by the way, I want to back up to something here in Canada, I don't. I forget who our governing body is. They have declared. We are in a recession, And
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Jane Atkinson: did we not have really, really, really cheap money available to us from loans and mortgages and things like that for a long period of time, like what do you think is considered
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Jane Atkinson: ridiculously cheap? Money versus the interest rates that are happening right now,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: right? So I mean Canada's had a problem with housing for quite some time. It's just not enough of it to be honest, but then I mean for low income, for suspicion, and and the United States is the same way. The demand for housing is is pretty extraordinary. Um! But uh,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: if you want to jump, start an economy that struggling. The central bank has a couple of tools that it can use. Um. The first thing it does is cut interest rates aggressively in the United States and Canada basically cut to zero. Well, if you do that, that's great for a while. But if it's if it's accompanied with
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: a big amount of fiscal spending you really run the risk of generating inflation. If you don't see the signs for and aggressively move back the other way, it's it's a temporary measure that should be used only temporarily, not for an extended period of time. And that's where I think the United States got in A lot of trouble. Is that literally a year ago our central bank knew it had inflation that was going up. We knew we had five percent Gdp growth. There was no reason for us to keep interest prices
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: as well as they were. So um! They waited way too long. Historically this is what they do. They make this mistake, and then they rush to try to catch up. So it's playing out pretty much
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: what we thought. Um, So when it comes to, you know housing and things like that. It It was way overcooked. Now it's coming back to the other way. We'll see how far down it goes. It is not like the global financial crisis. This is not going to be a banking crisis. The banks here in the United States um had to increase their capital level significantly under a law called Dot, Frank Canada's banking system, so much more sound than the Us. Was back in two thousand and eight.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: I could testify that because I worked at a Canadian bank back then. Um so. Um! But so this isn't going to be like That's why I say this recession should be somewhat mild, but it depends on what sector you're in. So that's really kind of the case where where this is going.
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Jane Atkinson: Do you remember when the interest rates went over twenty. I do Y. That was a really frightening time. And you do you predict that anything like that will ever will ever come close to anything like that again. No, because I think inflation is going to come off. Um, we're probably at the P. Commit right now. It never say never, because we don't know the outcome of the Ukraine war um, but
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: we know year over year it will start to go down. Um. We know we know the chip shortage is starting to abate. We know auto production is starting to go up, and that means if there's more cars, then prices of new cars start to come down. Buyer stepped in use. Car prices start to come off, and it starts to cascade that way, and transportation has been the
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: poster child, for where inflation is shown up the most. And then food, of course, because not only
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: well, really because of energy, more than anything, Diesel prices specifically. So once those prices start to come off a bit. Then it cascades through the whole economy, and and that's what I I think we're going to see, as the world adjusts to the situation in Ukraine.
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Jane Atkinson: Okay, that's good to know that feels hopeful to me that this isn't just gonna keep piling on and piling on and piling on. We hold three mortgages. So you know, i'm aware uh, but i'm really trying to be pretty, you know, even keeled about the whole thing, not making any knee jerk reactions if you've got cash. By the way, it's an amazing time to invest, is it not?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean, it just depends in your timeframe. I mean, if you're looking out ten years
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, I mean you could. You could definitely put some money in there. Um, but you can also look at and say, You know there's some of these trends that are not going to disappear
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: over time, so you may have to start to rethink like. Do I want all tech. You know that that kind of ship is sailed for right now. Doesn't mean it can't go back up ten percent or something like that, because it's come off thirty or forty percent.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: So you have to be thoughtful about what you do. Um! And when it comes to interest rates I would say, overall um, you know, when you see rates move up as quickly as we have um that really it's disruptive, and so it will slow the economy they won't necessarily come off a tremendous amount from these levels, but they they will keep going up. That's the key point that we're looking for the inflection here that I hope Uh, I love.
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Jane Atkinson: I like that, and I hope it's true. Um! So industries. Is it true that tech is laying off right now,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: because they don't have a lot of profits. It's easy for them to get into trouble quickly if they don't have the right mix of people and technology. So there's I mean, Meta is laying off. You know, a lot of people they're going through a hard time. Even. You know. Big companies like Tesla are looking at things where they can decrease their costs. A lot of firms are not necessarily cutting workers per se, but they're not. They're stopping their hiring,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh, which I think is a a smart thing to do.
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Jane Atkinson: I know some people hate electric vehicles, but I do have a Tesla on order, but I heard that they are announced a new, like half price cost of a car. They have new technology, and there's something new on the horizon which I think is good news for people who want to get into electric, but can't afford the big prices. Right?
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah. And I think that's
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: um.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: The run up in the cost of the cars is really predicated upon so much of the supply chain not being able to get chips,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: and I mean they're in your phones. They're in your car. They're in your refrigerator. They're you know. They're just they're just everywhere. And so if we have a problem with that supply, chain, then everything starts to go up because you can't produce enough of those cars. So I think. Um, I I think overall uh
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: like I said,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: You know You hate to see people lose their jobs for sure when we don't want that, and maybe that doesn't happen. But we definitely going to see we are already seeing a much slower pattern of uh of in the housing market. And that's really the canary in the coal mine, for when you start raising rates so overall. Yes, I think we could start to see
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: uh some of the more highly demanded products out there. Start to ease off and be able to um. We know there's inventory prompts with like Walmart and uh Target. They've already told us that. So that, like, if you think about the Us. Economy, and i'm just gonna go through. This really quickly is what I do In some of my presentations like prior to the pandemic
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: consumer spending was like seventy percent was on services, and thirty percent more designed goods. Well, if you can't spend on services,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know, if you can't go to a Bar restaurant, you can't travel, you, you know. Don't go to a hotel, you know you still have your job right? All of a sudden you go. Okay? Well, if i'm working from home. Then I need a new office, a new new table. I need a new chair I need an ipad for my son who's going to school all vote.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: Yeah, right. All those things are good, and you start to bump up the demand for those goods. Well, globally, everybody was doing the same thing to supply chains couldn't handle it. Now, what we saw this past summer is we're starting to see that shift the other way. People went on vacation. They went to bars, restaurants, concerts, all of those things which is great news.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: So, as I said at the very beginning, it depends on where you sit in the economy. If you're on the good side of things, you're probably feeling like the world is falling in. If you're on the services side you're going. I need to hire more people.
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Jane Atkinson: So it's. It's just fascinating to see. It is fascinating. Okay. So let's do a lightning round, And I want to hear about various industries in like. Let's So i'm thinking about if you want to target these industries as a speaker,
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Jane Atkinson: you know. Is it a good time or not a good time. So we think tech is kind of like shaky right now, right? So maybe not tech.
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Jane Atkinson: Yeah, I mean, insurance is still pretty robust. I would say, Um, so I I like that other than the hurricane in Florida.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: It's very robust now that interest rates have gone up. They're making more money because of the spread between where they can borrow and where they can lend. Okay, So we'll put that over the whole financial services sector healthcare, one hundred and fifty
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: yeah health care. It's just very consistent. Probably you know. Um, nothing great, but it's just consistent.
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Jane Atkinson: Do you think they're coming back like they struggle during Covid. I'm: sure most of them right? Yeah. I mean from my perspective, like I've been on the road for, like,
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know, since um the fall of two thousand and twenty, and so I I mean two thousand and twenty-one. I was doing a bunch with associations The the thing was that there's some of them that are very cautious in the way that they approach most of those. My experience this year has been that they're opening up and having their conferences in two thousand and twenty-two. So
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: um really so much of that is going to be driven by how this fall looks with Covid, and
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: whether people not um feel comfortable with that, but I I think the Protocols will be in place to be fine with that. But to me associations came back strongly this year. Good, good uh agriculture. I know you speak to some agriculture super busy. I mean one of the best ones out there, just because
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: they need help with all the volatility that's going on. But be you know what they're selling is what everybody needs, so food, right? So
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: it's good place to what is the sector that I didn't mention yet. That's important to note
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: energy energy. I was just gonna say mining. Okay, yeah, those two are related. Obviously: Um: Yeah, I I think you know there there was a big move into green energy. Now that's getting dialed back a little bit. I think the old what
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: you know, fossil fuels. Um hydrocarbons. Those are still super important. And so they're obviously making a lot of money at the prices that are out there. So they're still robust. Okay. Well, listen. You did exactly what I wanted you to do.
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Jane Atkinson: I'm calmer. Our listeners are calmer as well. We don't want Jean to be calm. That's
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Jane Atkinson: freaking out then, everybody. No, that's not true. And uh, but I did freak out at the beginning of Covid until I spoke to you. Uh, you did help calm me down. I also remembered. Hey, wait a second. People need me now more than ever, and I cruise through Covid probably have my best year ever during Covid. So I think that that's important to note and
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Jane Atkinson: and let's really work on our mindset. If watching the news makes you anxious. Then look at your intake and scale it back. That's what I've been doing lately. That's my number. One solution is
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Jane Atkinson: Don't. Let the news alarm me as much, especially first thing in the morning every day. That's not a good way to start my day. No, I just remember that
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: there's a phrase in media, and I I will say this, but it's terrible, but if it bleeds, it leads, and that is, you know, if there's a fire, that's the first thing local news goes to for sure if they're blowing up something in the Ukraine That's the first thing they're going to go to. They're going to make it sound like It's so much worse than it is. And i'm not downplaying these things. These are really important issues for sure
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: people working on helping each other that you don't see there's a lot of believe it or not.
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: There's a lot of smart people in both the Canadian Government and the Us. Government that are working to do good things. I know that's hard to believe, but I will tell you from my experience in government it That was probably the biggest surprise I saw. So there's good things that are going on. So So just temper what you hear with the knowledge of that it's really good, and I just want to send some heartfelt,
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Jane Atkinson: You know knowledge that what we've been talking about are really first world problems. If you have a roof over your head. You
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Jane Atkinson: like the people in Florida and Fort Myers do not right now be grateful. If, uh in in Hurricane, Fiona actually really did a number out here here in Canada as well. If you're not being bombed on a daily basis, be grateful like there's so much that we can really be grateful for. And I really want to send out some heartfelt prayers for people who are struggling right now, You know. I think Covid took a real
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Jane Atkinson: uh.
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Jane Atkinson: It, knocked back mental health in a big way. And I think that that's something that we just all need to be really aware of, and
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: maybe uh go hug somebody today. Yeah. And I think that, you know I I heard a great sermon the other day when they were talking. They made this quote about how We're coming out of the pandemic right now, and we're kind of reopening up. But we're coming out with um
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: not
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Economic Futurist Andy Busch: with no energy reserves meaning like personal energy reserves. We're way low on those. And so you need to start to think about building those back up. And I think one of the best ways to calm yourself down is just to do something for somebody else. Help somebody else out, you know. Just be be a resource for somebody, or you know. Call up a family friend, or whatever you know. Just just do something outside that's not for you that's for someone else, and it will make you feel a lot better I get.
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Jane Atkinson: That's a great place to close in. So much for being here again with us. The great calmer downer. Uh, I appreciate you, and I appreciate those who are listening in. And I'm hoping that this helped you. One hundred and fifty,
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Jane Atkinson: you know, create a little balance in your thoughts about what's coming. Thanks again, Andy. With that we're going to say. See you some wealthy speakers bye, for now everyone.
Highlights you won’t want to miss:
- Andy’s current business model. [1:00]
- Are we in a recession? [3:00]
- Supply chain issues or corporate greed? [6:00]
- Pandemic to endemic. [11:30]
- Interest rates are on the rise. [14:00]
- Spending on goods vs services. [20:00]
- Who to target for speaking. [22:30]
- Work on your mindset. [25:00]
Prior to joining the CFTC, Andrew was CEO and founder of a boutique financial markets and policy research firm, Bering Productions, Inc (BPI). Before BPI, he was the Global Currency and Public Policy Strategist for Bank of Montreal (BMO) in Chicago. He is author of the book “World Event Trading,” covering large crises like infectious disease outbreaks and their impact on the markets. Today, he’s a consultant and keynote speaker with a wide range of clients, including financial services, energy, manufacturing, and construction. Andy moves people from the chaos today to confidence in the future.
If you’ve been worrying about what is coming in the world of finance and want some insight into what you can expect, you simply can’t afford to miss this episode!
I hope you’ll download and learn.
Links:
Andy’s website
Andy’s book: USA Canada
NBER
Andy’s LinkedIn profile
Jane’s LinkedIn profile
Jane’s Private Coaching Options
The Wealthy Speaker School
